Abstract

EFFECT OF SOCIAL MEDIA ON THE DYNAMICS OF RUMOR: A MATHEMATICAL MODELLING APPROACH

Mayaki, Z.I.1, Yayock, J.F1, Yusuf, I.2,Anka, G.H.3

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Abstract In this paper, we proposed and analysed a new mathematical model on the spread of rumor in a population with high social media usage. The effective reproduction number was computed and its value used to show that the rumor-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable (GAS) when and the endemic equilibrium is GAS if otherwise. Numerical simulations agreed with the analytical results and further revealed that if 75% of the population is using social media and the effort rate of government against illicit use of social media is a little above average (say, 60%), it will take about 8 years for the population to attain a rumor-free society. On the other hand, if the proportion of individuals using social media is low (say, 25%) and the effort rate of the government against illicit use of social media is also low (say, 30%), the population will attain a rumor-endemic equilibrium within the first year and continue in such trend for more than 10 years. It is however recommended that the government should discourage people from illicit use of social media by developing educational and recreational platforms to engage individuals using social media. Keywords: Rumor, Stability, Effective reproduction number, Social media

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