Abstract

MODELING AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT GROWTH IN NIGERIA USING DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS

1Obasi, C. V; 2Ezekwe, E. O and Ogbonna, C.C

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Abstract Agricultural sector is the most important sector of the Nigeria economy which holds a lot of potentials for the future economic development of the nation as it had done in the past. Notwithstanding the enviable position of the oil sector in the Nigerian economy over the past three decades, the agricultural sector is arguably the most important sector of the economy. In spite of Nigeria’s rich agricultural resource endowment; there has been a gradual decline in agriculture's contributions to the nation's economy. This paper therefore focused on modeling agricultural output growth rate in Nigeria using differential equations. The time series data cover 40 years ranging from 1970-2010. The data were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin, 2010 edition. The Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 16 was also used to plot the graph of the data. The results showed that the predicted agricultural output growth rate is approximately 2.23% per year. It means that as time progresses, there will be 2.23% increase in the agricultural output. This is an indication that Nigeria is experiencing slow agricultural output since 1970. This paper enjoins others to recommend that Government should provide funds to acquire agricultural resources and increase her budgetary allocation to this sector in a consistent manner because of its importance to the national economy, hoping that with proper monitoring of fund, it would contribute more significantly to the economy of the country. Keywords: Differential Equations, Agriculture, Agricultural Output, Modeling, Growth

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