Abstract

STATISTICAL INDICATORS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN MAKURDI METROPOLIS: AN IMPLICATION TO CROP PRODUCTION IN THE AREA

*,1AGADA, P.O. 2 Imande M.T. 3Amedu, M.O.

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Abstract African countries and sub-regions are projected to be severely affected by climate variability and change. This is evident in its adverse effect on crop production among others. What is not clear is the nature of this change, fluctuations, variations and trends in specific region like the Benue. This work identified, analysed and interpreted some Statistical Indicators of Climate Change in Makurdi Metropolis, Benue State, Nigeria. Thirty four (34) years data on daily rainfall amount (mm), maximum air temperature (oC) and maximum relative humidity (%) for Makurdi Metropolis was used in the study. The statistical methods employed in developing the indicators include; Kruskal-Wallis One-Way Analysis of Variance test, the Linear Trend Analysis, and the Markov Chain Modelling most especially in the determination of the long run or steady state probability of wet and dry days. Two (2) Functional Statistical Indicators of Climate Change were developed based on the result of the analysis. The statistical indicators identified include; significant difference in the distribution of wet and dry days for each month over the period, and the increasing number of dry days and decreasing number of wet days over the period. Another set of indicators identified include; significant difference in the distribution of warmer and colder maximum air temperature for each month over the period and increasing number of warmer days and decreasing number of colder days over the period. Additional set of indicators identified include significant difference in the distribution of high and low relative humidity for each month over the period and increasing number of high relative humidity days and decreasing number of low relative humidity days over the period. The authors conclude that with these indicators, climate change is fast setting into Makurdi Metropolis, and finally recommends that the best way to communicate the presence of climate change is through the use of indicators. Keywords : Indicators, Climate, Change, Crop

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