Abstract

PROBABILITY INDICATOR FUNCTIONS FOR ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE GROWTH AND STORAGE OF CROPS IN MAKURDI, NIGERIA.

Agada, P.O., Ogwuche, & O. I., Yaweh, B. I.

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Abstract Physical evidence as well as study results based on analysis of data on climatic variables, have been used to ascertain that climate change constitute recent threats to crop production and humanity in general. Quantifying the impact of climate change most especially on the growth and storage of crops has remained a challenge. This work is a bold step towards overcoming this challenge as it seeks to assess the impact of climate change on crop growth and storage in Makurdi Metropolis, Benue State, Nigeria. Thirty seven (37) years data on daily rainfall amount (mm), maximum air temperature (oC) and maximum relative humidity (%) for Makurdi Metropolis was used in the study. The selected crops for the study include; Yam, Rice and Pearl millet. Two Probability Indicator Functions were developed. The first, for quantifying the impact of climate change on the climatic condition for crop growth and the second for quantifying its impact on the climatic condition for crop storage, using the data on the aforementioned climatic variables. The underlying assumption is that, without the effect of climate change, there should be a 100% chance of having the climatic conditions for crop growth and storage. The Probability Indicator Functions were developed in such a way that they indicate the effect of climate change above or below 50% in accordance to whether the probability of having the climatic condition for crop growth or storage is less than or equal to 0.5 or greater than 0.5. A major conclusion of the study is that if climate change is not checked, Makurdi, Nigeria, will lose its climate for the growth and storage of Yam, Rice and Pearl Millet in the long run. This means that climate change has impacted negatively on the growth and storage of the aforementioned crops. The study recommends that; the Probability Indicator Functions should be applied to other crops grown in the area to further assess the impact of climate change on their growth and storage.

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