Abstract

STOCHASTIC MODELING OF CHICKENPOX EPIDEMICS ON NETWORKS

P.N. Okolo and O. Abu,

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Abstract Chickenpox (also called varicella) is a highly contagious illness caused by an herpes virus called varicella zoster, and is one of the commonly reported childhood diseases. The objective of this study is to examine the effect of vaccination and human contact interactions on the transmission of chickenpox virus in general; and in particular, the plausibility of elimination of chickenpox disease in Idah Community, Kogi State, Nigeria. Data on contact interaction among 100 young children in Idah Community were collected. A graph representing this population and their interconnectedness was generated. The effects of different converges of vaccination on the epidemiology of chickenpox virus were investigated. The results show that when children reduce the number of contacts with their peers, the number of chicken pox cases reduces. However, based on the contact data collected, effective chickenpox vaccination is crucial for the elimination of chickenpox among the children in Idah community.

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