Abstract

Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Yam Production using Probability Density Function in a Humid Rainforest Agroecological Region of Nigeria

I. Nnabue 1 , N.R. Okereke 2 , J. E. Obidiegwu 3

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This study was on the effect of some micro-climate on yam production in south-east Nigeria using a Probability Density Function. A Function was developed in such a way that it indicates the effect of climate change above 50% if the probability of having the climatic condition for yam growth is less than and or equal to 0.5, otherwise impact is below 50%. The micro climate data used in this study include forty-eight (48) years data on monthly average temperature (?), forty (40) years data on monthly rainfall amount (mm) and forty (40) years data on monthly maximum relative humidity (%). The result showed that climate change has impacted negatively (above 50%) on rainfall for the different growth phases (March – December) of yam. The study also revealed an impact, below 50% on average air temperature and relative humidity across the growth phase. This study recommends that climate change mitigation such as irrigation-based yam production be considered against rain-fed yam production being presently practiced in humid rainforest agroecological region of Nigeria. Keywords; Climate-change; Probability-Indicator; Impact; Yam, Yield

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